Global warming strikes

[David]

First snow of the year. a good one. i got the cabin insulated just in time to start heating the inside. we had 2 inches in the morning and 4 about mid day. looking for more tonight and into tomorrow. MM

[Chris]

So true. With elevated sea surface temperatures increasing the water vapor flux to the lower atmosphere, the highest elevations can expect increased snow falls, but only as long as the seasonally adjusted ambient land surface temperature (on the increase too!) remains below 0 degrees Celsius. There are some nifty predictive models out there that can help you pick a spot on the planet that will remain good for skiing into the next century, (but then get ready to sell and move higher, because the thermal mass balance is not going to stabilize for millenia). Surfing, on the other hand, should be good until the sun runs out of hydrogen to fuse and sitches to mostly helium, and goes giant, and the earth is in it's photosphere, and all the volatiles boil off our planet.

What is the elevation at your cabin?

[David]

thanks for the insight into "more snow over the short term perhaps." The cabin is at 5700 feet. I just saw a Mountain Jay fly by, it's getting cooler and they are coming down the valley. Started putting plastic on the windows and getting the drafts all sealed up.

see ya all soon

[rusty]

Yes the surfing should be good, in fact recent papers using historical (last 40 yrs) sattellite data have shown that globally, wave heights both average and maximum have increased. presumably this is due to larger heat gradients leading to more energetic convective processes. This is particularly true in the southern ocean which unfortunately we dont see much swell from in SE QLD. Locally wave hts wont increase much; as the southern annular mode drifts poleward storms are intensifying but getting furhter away, the two balance out but the wavelengths we see will increase (this is a good thing).

[David]

does this mean it's time to pool the cash and get some beach front on Elephant island? or South Georgia? we could probably swing both skiing and surfing at these locations. I heard from someone yesterday that the glaciers in the tiera del fuego region are growing

[rusty]

I think you could be onto something....